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Fiji can expect one or two Tropical Cyclones to pass through its Exclusive Economic Zone during the cyclone season.

Of these, there is a chance that one could reach severe status, classified as Category 3 or higher.

The Nadi Meteorological Centre predicts that the 2024-25 season will have near-average or below-average cyclone activity across the region.

An equal risk exists for cyclones affecting any part of the Fiji Group.

For the broader Pacific region under RSMC Nadi’s responsibility, five to six cyclones are expected during the season which is slightly below the usual average of seven cyclones.

Out of these, one or two cyclones are anticipated to develop into severe tropical storms.

The cyclone risk west of the International Dateline remains near average to above average with two to five cyclones likely in that area.

However, to the east, only two or three cyclones are expected marking a below-average risk for the eastern Pacific.

Cyclone activity is often influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which impacts weather patterns across the Pacific.

Currently, the region is in a neutral ENSO phase but global models predict that weak La Niña conditions may develop during the cyclone season.

The cyclone season runs from November 1 to April 30.