The Fijian economy has been described as being at an inflection point.

ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen says Fiji’s recovery has been remarkable in a very short space of time from the pandemic-induced recessions.

He explains that an inflexion point essentially means one of three choices going forward.

“So, an inflexion point essentially means one of three choices going forward: (1) do we see Fiji’s economy continue to grow at the fast pace we have seen recently, (2) does it stabilise and (3) does it go backwards.”

ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen.

Sen says he can confidently rule out an economic contraction as the underlying drivers of the Fijian economy remain sound.

He says they believe that, right now, activity has stabilized somewhat and economic growth has normalized in the high two to three percent range.

Sen states that this is what they saw, on average, prior to the pandemic, and that is what they see as the most likely outcome for Fiji’s GDP growth over 2025 and 2026.

According to Sen, tourism, which supported Fiji’s economy post-COVID, has largely stabilized as a result of capacity constraints and uncertainties in home markets

In his Pacific Economic Outlook Sen says private sector investment is emerging.

However, he adds that while the economy is doing okay on average, some businesses are finding conditions challenging. But as private investment broadens, many of these businesses will recover.

He also states that there is no risk of recession but they expect the rate of growth to slow.

He is forecasting Fiji’s GDP to grow by 2.8 percent this year and 2.6 percent in 2026.

Sen is confident of stronger growth from 2027, when international tourism will return to being a key driver of growth as new capacity comes online.

He states that they remain hopeful that some of the new industries considered by Fiji will also be emerging by then, further stimulating the economy.

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