[Source: Reuters]

After 13 years of civil war, Syria’s opposition militias sensed an opportunity to loosen President Bashar al-Assad’s grip on power when, about six months ago, they communicated to Turkey plans for a major offensive and felt they had received its tacit approval, two sources with knowledge of the planning said.

Launched barely two weeks ago, the operation’s speedy success in achieving its initial goal – seizing Syria’s second city, Aleppo – took almost everybody by surprise.

From there, in a little more than a week, the rebel alliance reached Damascus and on Sunday put an end to five decades of Assad family rule.

The lightning advance relied on an almost perfect alignment of stars for the forces opposed to Assad: his army was demoralised and exhausted; his main allies, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, were severely weakened by conflict with Israel; and his other key military supporter, Russia, was distracted and losing interest.

There was no way the rebels could go ahead without first notifying Turkey, which has been a main backer of the Syrian opposition from the war’s earliest days, said the sources, a diplomat in the region and a member of the Syrian opposition.

Turkey has troops on the ground in northwest Syria, and provides support to some of the rebels who were intending to take part, including the Syrian National Army (SNA) – though it considers the main faction in the alliance, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to be a terror group.

The rebels’ bold plan was the brainchild of HTS and its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the diplomat said.

Because of his former ties to al Qaeda, Golani is designated as a terrorist by Washington, Europe and Turkey.

However, over the past decade, HTS, previously known as the Nusra Front, has tried to moderate its image, while running a quasi-state centered on Idlib, where, experts say, it levied taxes on commercial activities and the population.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s government, which struck a deal with Russia in 2020 to de-escalate fighting in northwestern Syria, has long opposed such a major rebel offensive, fearing it would lead to a new wave of refugees crossing its border.