[Source: AP Photo]

United Nations agencies have long warned that it could take decades to rebuild Gaza after Israel’s offensive against Hamas, one of the deadliest and most destructive military campaigns since World War II.

Now, more than a year into the war, a new report speaks in terms of centuries.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said that if the war ends tomorrow and Gaza returns to the status quo before Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, it could take 350 years for its battered economy to return to its precarious prewar level.

Before the war, Gaza was under an Israeli and Egyptian blockade imposed after Hamas seized power in 2007. Four previous wars and divisions between Hamas and the Western-backed Palestinian Authority in the West Bank also took a toll on Gaza’s economy.

The current war has caused staggering destruction across the territory, with entire neighbourhoods obliterated and roads and critical infrastructure in ruins. Mountains of rubble laced with decomposing bodies and unexploded ordnance would have to be cleared before rebuilding could begin.

“Once a ceasefire is reached, a return to the pre-October 2023 status quo would not put Gaza on the path needed for recovery and sustainable development,” the report said. “If the 2007–2022 growth trend returns, with an average growth rate of 0.4 per cent, it will take Gaza 350 years just to restore the GDP levels of 2022.”

Israel says the blockade is needed to prevent Hamas from importing arms and blames the militant group for Gaza’s plight. “There is no future for the people of Gaza as long as their people continue to be occupied by Hamas,” Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, said in response to the report.

Author Rami Alazzeh said his message was that the recovery in Gaza depended on the conditions in which the recovery would happen.

The report says that even under the most optimistic scenario, with a projected growth rate of 10 per cent, Gaza’s recovery would still take decades.

“Assuming no military operation, and freedom of movement of goods and people and a significant level of investment, and population growth of 2.8 per cent per year, UNCTAD estimates that Gaza’s GDP per capita will return to its 2022 level by 2050,” it said.

A separate report released Tuesday by the UN Development Program said that with major investment and the lifting of economic restrictions, the Palestinian economy as a whole, including the West Bank, could be back on track by 2034. In the absence of both, its predictions align with those of UNCTAD.

Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted another 250 when they stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Around 100 hostages are still inside Gaza, a third of whom are believed to be dead.

Israel’s offensive has killed over 42,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, who say more than half the dead are women and children. It has displaced around 90 per cent of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million, forcing hundreds of thousands into squalid tent camps.

There’s no indication that international donors are willing to fund the rebuilding of Gaza as long as it remains in the grip of war or under Israeli occupation. Arab Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have said they will only do so if there is a pathway to a Palestinian state.